7.5.1.1 Principles and techniques of market risk management
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In market risk management (especially commodity and currency risk) the scale and profile of activities of the Parent Entity and of mining companies of KGHM INTERNATIONAL LTD. is of the greatest significance and impact the resultsof the KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. Group.
The Parent Entity actively manages market risk by taking actions and making decisions in this regard within the context of the KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. Group’s global exposure as a whole.
In accordance with the adopted policy, the goals of the market risk management process in the Group are as follows:
- limit volatility in the financial result;
- increase the probability of meeting budget targets;
- decrease the probability of losing financial liquidity;
- maintain financial health; and
- support the process of strategic decision making related to investing activities, including financing sources.
The objectives of market risk management should be considered as a whole, and their realisation is determined mainly by the Group’s internal situation and market conditions.
The goals of market risk management at the Group level are achieved through their realisation in individual mining companies of the Group, with the coordination of these activities at the Parent Entity’s level, in which key tasks related to the process of market risk management in the Group were centralised (such as coordination of the identification of sources of exposure to market risk, proposing hedging strategies, contacting financial institutions in order to sign, confirm and settle derivative transactions, and calculating measurements to fair value).
The primary technique used by the Parent Entity in market risk management is the utilisation of hedging strategies involving derivatives. Natural hedging is also used. Some other domestic companies of the Group make use of derivatives, however only the Parent Entity applies hedging strategies, as understood by hedge accounting.
Taking into account the potential scope of their impact on the Group’s results, market risk factors were divided into the following groups:
| Group | Market risk | Approach to risk management | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Note 7.2 | Group I – factors having the greatest impact on the Group’s total exposure to market risk | Copper price | A strategic approach is applied to this group, aimed at systematically building up a hedging position comprising production and revenues from sales for subsequent periods while taking into account the long-term cyclical nature of various markets. A hedging position may be restructured before it expires. |
| Note 7.2 | Silver price | ||
| Note 7.2 | USD/PLN exchange rate | ||
| Note 7.2 | Group II – other exposure to market risk | Prices of other metals and merchandise | From the Group’s point of view, this group is comprised of less significant risks, although sometimes these risks are significant from an individual entity points of view. Therefore, it is tactically managed – on an ad-hoc basis, taking advantage of favourable market conditions. |
| Note 7.2 | Other exchange rates | ||
| Note 7.2 | Interest rates |
In market risk management various approaches are applied for particular, identified exposure groups. The Parent Entity considers the following factors when selecting hedging strategies or restructuring hedging positions: current and forecasted market conditions, the internal situation of the Entity, the effective level and cost of hedging, and the impact of the minerals extraction tax.
The Parent Entity applies an integrated approach to managing the market risk to which it is exposed. This means a comprehensive approach to market risk, and not to each element individually. An example is the hedging transactions on the currency market, which are closely related to contracts entered into on the metals market. The hedging of metals sales prices determines the probability of achieving specified revenues from sales in USD, which represent a hedged position for the strategy on the currency market.
The Parent Entity only executes those derivatives which it has the ability to evaluate internally, using standard pricing models appropriate for a particular type of derivative, and which can be traded without significant loss of value a counterparty other than the one with whom the transaction was initially entered into. In the market valuation of a given instrument, the Parent Entity uses information obtained from leading information services, banks, and brokers.
The Market Risk Management Policy in the Group permits the use of the following types of instruments:
- swaps,
- forwards and futures,
- options, and
- structures combining the above instruments.
The instruments applied may be, therefore, either of standardised parameters (publicly traded instruments) or non-standardised parameters (over-the-counter instruments). The primary instruments applied are cash flow hedging instruments meeting the requirements for effectiveness as understood by hedge accounting. The effectiveness of the financial hedging instruments applied by the Parent Entity in the reporting period is continually monitored and assessed (details in Note 7.2 Derivatives – accounting policies).
The economic relationship between a hedging instrument and a hedged position is based on the sensitivity of the value of the position to the same market factors (metals prices, exchange rates or interest rates) and on matching appropriate key parameters of the hedging instrument and the hedged position (volume/notional amount, maturity date).
The hedge ratio of the established hedging relationship is set at the amount ensuring the effectiveness of the relationship and is consistent with the actual volume of the hedged position and the hedging instrument. Sources of potential ineffectiveness of the relationship arise from a mismatch of the parameters of the hedging instrument and the hedged position (e.g. the notional amount, maturity, base instrument, impact of credit risk). When structuring a hedging transaction, the Parent Entity aims to ensure a maximal match between these parameters to minimise the sources of ineffectiveness.
The Parent Entity quantifies its market risk exposure using a consistent and comprehensive measure. Market risk management in the Group is supported by simulations (such as scenario analysis, stress-tests, backtests) and calculated risk measures. The risk measures being used are mainly based on mathematical and statistical modelling, which uses historical and current market data concerning risk factors and takes into consideration the current exposure to market risk.
One of the measures used as an auxiliary tool in making decisions in the market risk management process in the Parent Entity is EaR – Earnings at Risk. This measure indicates the lowest possible level of profit for the period for a selected level of confidence (for example, with 95% confidence the profit for a given year will be not lower than…). The EaR methodology enables the calculation of profit for the period incorporating the impact of changes in market prices of copper, silver and foreign exchange rates in the context of budget plans. EBITDA-at-Risk ratio is calculated for both the KGHM INTERNATIONAL LTD. Group and the JV Sierra Gorda S.C.M.
Due to the risk of production cutbacks (for example because of force majeure) or failure to achieve planned foreign currency revenues, as well as purchases of metals contained in purchased materials, limits with respect to commitment in derivatives have been set.
For the Parent Entity limits on metals and currency markets were set at:
- up to 85% of planned, monthly sales volumes of copper, silver and gold from own concentrates, while: for copper and silver – up to 50% with respect to instruments which are obligations of the Parent Entity (for financing the hedging strategy), and up to 85% with respect to instruments representing the rights of the Parent Entity,
- up to 85% of planned, monthly revenues from the sale of products from own concentrates in USD
or of the monthly, contracted net currency cash flows in the case of other currencies. For purposes of setting the limit, expenses for servicing the debt denominated in USD decrease the nominal amount of exposureto be hedged.
With respect to the risk of changes in interest rates, the Parent Entity has set a limit of commitment in derivatives of up to 100% of the debt’s nominal value in every interest period, as stipulated in the signed agreements.
For selected mining companies in the Group, limits were set for commitment in derivatives on the copper and currency markets at the same levels as those functioning in the Parent Entity, while with respect to transactions on the nickel, silver and gold markets the limits were set as up to 60% of planned, monthly sales volume from own concentrates.
These limits are in respect both of hedging transactions as well as of the instruments financing these transactions.
The maximum time horizon within which the Group decides to limit market risk is set in accordance with the technical and economic planning process and amounts to 5 years, whereas in terms of interest rate risk, the time horizon reaches up to the maturity date of the long-term financial liabilities of the Group.